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A September 2026 essay by Polish analyst Tom Wojcik traces how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz since March has driven oil to $108, US diesel above $6 a gallon, French petrol shortages and a forecast 25 percent drop in Europe’s potato harvest. He argues decades of swapping buffers for dependencies left the system with no slack when several were tested at once.
Polish analyst Tom Wojcik published a widely shared essay on 21 September 2026 arguing that the crises of 2026 — the closed Strait of Hormuz, record fuel prices, failing harvests and Europe’s energy squeeze — are not separate stories but one chain of dependencies breaking at once. Writing from a country that borders “Europe’s largest war since 1945,” he documents how a single choked waterway has travelled into diesel pumps in France, grain prices in Paris and his own country’s coal-and-gas winter heating.
According to the report, US and Israeli military operations against Iran began in late February, and since March Iran has kept the Strait of Hormuz closed with drones, missiles, mines and small boats. Tanker traffic has fallen by more than 90 percent, and the International Energy Agency calls it the largest supply disruption the oil market has ever seen. A fragile ceasefire in early summer collapsed; by early September Brent crude was near $97 a barrel, around $105 by mid-month, and it touched $108 on 24 September. Iran handed Washington a written road map on 22 September offering a regional ceasefire of up to 60 days, a phased reopening of the strait and an end to the American naval blockade; Washington rejected it, and by one report cited by Wojcik, the president expects to resume bombing after the November midterm elections.
The financial effects have been dramatic. The Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF rose more than 600 percent in the war’s first two months and was up more than 2,300 percent for the year by early September, while day rates for some supertankers went from under $100,000 before the war to a record of about $860,000 on 10 September. Wojcik notes the fund’s own manager says rates will fall if the strait reopens. Meanwhile Ukrainian drones have hit Russian refineries at least 70 times this year — roughly once every four days by the IEA’s count — pushing Russian refining output to a two-decade low. US diesel passed $6 a gallon for the first time on 10 September, and, according to the report, the American president has phoned Kyiv asking it to stop hitting diesel targets.
The food picture is also worsening. The strait normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser, and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization warns scarcity will cut yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. Europe’s potato belt illustrates the delayed damage: after last year’s glut led growers across Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Germany to plant 14 percent less, five heatwaves and a drought followed. Their growers’ organisation now expects a harvest down 25 percent, and in Belgium processing potato prices jumped from €10 to €150 a tonne within days.
Why One Closed Strait Reaches Polish Kitchens
Wojcik’s central argument is structural: for thirty years, countries and companies swapped buffers for dependencies, because “a supplier is cheaper than a stockpile and a guarantee is cheaper than an army.” When one dependency failed, it was replaced with another rather than a rebuilt buffer. What makes 2026 different, he writes, is that several dependencies were tested at the same time.
The concrete stakes are high. The World Food Programme estimates that sustained high oil prices could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity, on top of a baseline Wojcik describes as already grim: 2025 was the first year in the history of the Global Report on Food Crises with two confirmed famines, in Gaza and Sudan, and food-assistance funding fell an estimated 59 percent between 2022 and 2025. For Poland specifically, a country that heats itself with coal and imported gas and arms itself on borrowed money, the same closure that empties granaries also determines this winter’s heating costs.
The French Pump Shortages and the Price Cap
Wojcik uses France to show how price controls interact with a system that has no slack. A viral mid-September post claimed France was running out of fuel; the official data is less dramatic. On 20 September, 15 percent of stations had run out of petrol or diesel, up from 11 percent two days earlier, and 20 percent in the Grand Est region. The government rules out a shortage. About nine in ten dry stations belong to TotalEnergies, which caps petrol at €1.99 a litre — so drivers fleeing record prices elsewhere emptied its tanks faster than trucks could refill them. The official count also understates the gaps, since a station is only listed when it is out of every petrol grade or of diesel. Wojcik’s conclusion: “a price cap meant as a cushion, in a system with no slack, turned a price shock into empty pumps.”
“The world is not ending. But for thirty years we swapped buffers for dependencies, because a supplier is cheaper than a stockpile and a guarantee is cheaper than an army.”
— Tom Wojcik
Where the Essay’s Claims outrun the Data
Several elements remain unconfirmed or contested. The claim that the US president expects to resume bombing after the November midterm elections rests on “one report” that Wojcik does not name, and the White House has not confirmed it. Iran’s road map and its rejection are reported secondhand. The tanker ETF’s 2,300 percent gain concerns a fund Wojcik himself describes as tiny, whose manager expects rates to fall if the strait reopens — making it a poor proxy for the wider economy.
The FAO’s food-supply warning describes a delayed effect: fertiliser arriving late cannot recover lost yield, so the system “looks fine until the smaller harvests come in” — meaning the worst food figures are forecasts, not yet observed outcomes. French shortages and European harvest estimates also remain developing situations as of the 26 September data cut-off.
Watch the Ceasefire, the Harvest and Winter
The immediate variables are the fate of Iran’s rejected road map, the possibility of renewed US military action after the November midterms, and whether the strait reopens — the single event that would ease fuel, fertiliser and shipping pressures at once. Food outcomes will become visible with the late-2026 and 2027 harvests that the FAO warns about. For Poland and its neighbours, the test arrives sooner: winter heating demand against coal and imported-gas supplies, at a moment when the Red Sea detour around the Gulf runs through the Bab al-Mandab, where Houthi forces seized a key Yemeni port this month.
Key Questions
Who is Tom Wojcik and why did his essay attract attention?
He is a Polish writer who published the essay on his site on 21 September 2026. It drew attention by tracing one event — the Strait of Hormuz closure — through fuel prices, food supplies and European winter heating in a single data-grounded chain.
Is the Strait of Hormuz still closed?
As of the essay’s data cut-off of 26 September 2026, yes. Iran has kept it closed since March, and tanker traffic has fallen more than 90 percent. Iran proposed a phased reopening on 22 September, but Washington rejected the road map.
Is France actually running out of fuel?
Not according to the French government, which rules out a shortage. On 20 September, 15 percent of stations were dry, mostly TotalEnergies outlets whose price cap attracted drivers fleeing higher prices elsewhere.
How bad could the food situation get?
The World Food Programme estimates sustained high oil prices could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity. The FAO expects tightened supplies through late 2026 and into 2027 because fertiliser shortages cut future yields.
Why did tanker shipping stocks rise so much?
With Hormuz closed, crude tankers must take longer routes and rates have soared — some supertanker day rates hit about $860,000 on 10 September. The Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF rose more than 2,300 percent in 2026 to early September, though its manager expects rates to fall if the strait reopens.
Source: hn
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